The Future of Climate Modeling: Insights from the nextGEMS Hazard Hackathon

Two months ago, from October 14 to 18, Wageningen University and Research (WUR) hosted the nextGEMS Hazard Hackathon. Nearly 80 participants from 17 countries across three continents traveled to the Netherlands for this unique event.

A New Approach to Collaboration

Unlike previous hackathons that divided participants based on the nextGEMS working groups Storms and Land, Storms and Oceans, Storms and Radiation, and Storms and Society, this event took a fresh approach. Participants were organized into challenge groups focused on specific hazard-related topics, such as efficient data handling, the energy sector, fire weather, and extreme precipitation and temperature. These groups delivered remarkable insights and visualizations. Take a look for yourself:

Highlights of the Challenges

Efficient Data Handling Challenge

Led by Lukas Brunner and Olivia Martius, this group focused on providing global extreme indices for the HEALPix zoom level 9. They developed highly detailed plots, such as a comparison of surface temperature fields from the ICON and IFS models. One visualization revealed significant discrepancies of the annual maximum temperatures (txx) between the two models that were especially pronounced in North America and Australia. These results are likely due to differences in how the models simulate land-atmosphere interactions.

Energy Production Challenge

Coordinated by Menno Veerman and Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, this team analyzed weather-dependent energy production, in particular solar and wind energy. They explored the spatial patterns of each of these around the world and found that there is more capacity to produce wind energy over the oceans than on land, and a larger solar energy capacity in regions closer to the equator. In a case study approach, the team also discovered distinct spatial patterns of solar and wind energy production across Spain. Additionally, the researchers progressed a trend analysis for the region of Spain, to assess how the energy production capacity might change over time.

Fire Weather Challenge

The team led by Ralf Hand and Chiel van Heerwaarden focused on evaluating the potential of nextGEMS models to simulate realistic fire-prone weather conditions. They also sought to identify the factors driving potential changes in wildfire risk in the future. During their work, the team successfully modeled fire weather indices (FWI) as used by DWD, and also observed that humidity trends remain constant over time. However, they noted differences in the calculations produced by the IFS and ICON models, which require further investigation. Following this hackathon, the scientists plan to rerun these calculations using higher-resolution data to better understand how coarse versus high-resolution data impacts the results.

Extreme Precipitation and Temperature Challenge

Jonathan Wille, Jasper Denissen, and Birgit Suetzl led the extreme precipitation and temperatures and urban heat challenge. This group examined the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes at different levels, from the global to the local scale. The participants explored various topics within this broader frame, including the visualization of urban heat extremes, future changes in extreme precipitation behavior, and the connection between precipitation extremes and river runoff in alpine regions.  They found that changes in the frequency of heavy precipitation events depend on the rarity of the event and the modeling approach. For instance, a 1-in-3-year event occurs 5% more frequently in IFS simulations and 20% more frequently in ICON simulations. The researchers also discovered that these changes vary by the region in which the precipitation events occur, with heavy precipitation events in the Northern Hemisphere becoming more frequent at locations further away from the equator.

Engaging Side Events and Workshops

In addition to working on their group challenges, participants engaged in several enriching side events. Paolo Davini and Matteo Nurisso from CNR-ISAC introduced the model evaluation framework AQUA, developed as part of the Destination Earth initiative (DestinE). During a workshop on energy storylines conducted by Eulàlia Baulenas and Dragana Bojovic, participants debated which nextGEMS data would be relevant for energy industry stakeholders and how the project could help them make more informed decisions. Experts like Nuria Sanchez from Iberdrola and Hester Biemans from WUR shared captivating insights on topics such as renewable energy and food security.

The Role of Hackathons and Collaboration in Climate Research

On the final day, the Storms and Society working group presented their ongoing efforts in knowledge co-production and communication strategies. Their outputs aim to bridge research and policy-making through storylines, policy briefs, and accessible Science Explainers that communicate complex research to the public in simple terms.

Hackathons like this Hazard Hackathon foster collaboration, innovation, and knowledge sharing, as emphasized by Bjorn Stevens, Director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Stevens highlighted how nextGEMS contributes to broader climate modeling projects, including EERIE, WarmWorld, and DestinE. Thanks to the efforts of the nextGEMS community, DestinE successfully launched its system in June 2023, with its data now accessible to the nextGEMS community and the wider academic community via a newly released DestinE platform.

Inclusive Initiatives at the Event

However, not only scientific input and outcomes were at the focus of the Hazard Hackathon. The organizers also prioritized inclusivity by offering pronoun stickers for all attendees and rainbow lanyards for LGBTQIA2S+ community members and allies. These thoughtful gestures aimed to foster respect and acceptance for the diverse gender identities and sexual orientations within the nextGEMS community. For further reading on supporting the Queer community, attendees were encouraged to consult the HRC report on Being an LGBTQ+ Ally or explore resources provided by the EGU Pride group, which supports Queer individuals in geosciences and their allies.

The Future of nextGEMS: Transitioning Beyond the Project

Following three years of intensive knowledge creation, hacking, and collaboration, the nextGEMS project is now transitioning into its final phase. During the recent gathering, Bjorn Stevens initiated a discussion about the future of the nextGEMS community and its potential evolution beyond the project’s official timeline. As part of this dialogue, he announced an unprecedented event: the World Climate Research Programme Global KM-scale Hackathon.

This groundbreaking global hackathon is scheduled to take place from May 12–17, 2025, and will be hosted by multiple climate modeling institutes across the globe, including locations in Australia, Brazil, Argentina, China, Europe, India, Japan, North America, and South Africa. This unique, multi-continental approach highlights the collaborative and inclusive spirit of the climate research community.

To stay updated on the nextGEMS project and future events, including the final nextGEMS Hackathon, visit our news section and follow our social media channels.