Model development

nextGEMS advances the development and application of a new generation of Earth System models (ESMs), one that uses more physically based approaches that have been shown to much better represent every aspect of precipitation and are able to represent mesoscale circulations as well as the effects of mesoscale variations in the land surface (including orography) on the atmosphere.


Work Package 2

Model Validation and Development

Objectives

WP2 organizes the activities of the technical and model development staff to provide the simulations, and organize their output and the associated analysis environments, through the first part of the Development Phase.

Further Description

Several simulation and model development cycles will gradually push the models to the configuration targeted for production simulations. In WP2, the NextGEMS modelling team (composed of NextGEMS funded scientists from MPI-M, ECMWF, AWI and DKRZ) with strong support from the in-house modelling and technical support teams as well as collaborating scientists in the different WPs, will set up the runs, and prepare the data access, management structure and data analysis workflows, culminating in the Hackathons associated with each development cycle. Short scrums will be used to coordinate the activities of the modelling teams and to provide a unified workflow for both SR- ESMs. WP2 organizes tasks by the NextGEMS modelling team to modify the SR-ESM release candidates – including evolving model output requirements – based on input from the four themes, make available the model outputs for Cycle 1 simulations (available at the start of the project), perform the Cycle 2 simulations and associated data management, and initiate the Cycle 3 simulations. Additional tasks include performing short mid-cycle simulations to test proposed changes, providing a model uncertainty measure by running small ensembles with reduced resolution, and evolving the workflow for the subsequent Hackathons based on feedback from NextGEMS scientists that help to develop interfaces in anticipation of the near-field stakeholder groups ’Users’ and ’Technologists’.

Lead Beneficiary: ECMWF

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Work Package 3

Production and Future Developments

Objectives

WP3 is to prepare and execute the Cycle 3 and production simulations. Furthermore, support will be provided to the science teams in the organization of Hackathons and in testing model improvements. Finally, WP3 will make recommendations on efficient work flows and further developments of SR-ESMs. Specific objectives include:

  • To complete Cycle 3 (Development) simulations (O1).
  • To finalize the configuration (including associated output and data management requirements) of SR-ESMs for the production simulations. (O1)
  • To perform present day and future projections (i.e., production simulations). (O1/O2)
  • To organize and curate simulation output for sustainable access beyond the completion of NextGEMS. (O1/O2/O3)
  • To support the four themes in exploring extensions of SR-ESMs to address additional application needs and testing proposed model improvements. (O1/O2/O3)

Further Description

WP3 focuses on the preparation of the production simulations: two (ICON and IFS) climate projections for the period between 2020-2049 with a target horizontal resolution of 2 km to 3 km. For the present day reference multi-annual Cycle 3 runs will provide the benchmark, although as computational resources allow production simulations for the present day will also be performed. The objectives are therefore a continuation of those of WP2, finalising of the preparation of the SR-ESMs through the development cycles. This includes the scientific evaluation of the physical realism, and support of the data assimilation activities, but also with an increased technical focus on scaling up the I/O rates, data volumes, and production rates expected for the multi-decadal simulations at these unprecedented resolutions, as well as optimizing the post-processing chain.
WP3 will prepare and execute the production simulations and support the science teams in the organization of Hackathons and in testing model improvements and sensitivity to greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols proposed in WP5 and WP7.

Lead Beneficiary: AWI

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Science Explainer

Science explainers present the driving ideas and progress from NextGEMS scientists in plain language. The Explainers aim to show how scientists think and their way of working and cover a wide range of topics relevant to any audience interested in the latest breakthroughs related to strom-resolving Earth Systems Models (SR-ESM).

One of the goals in nextGEMS is to extend weather forecast models for climate studies. But this comes along with some scientific and technical challenges. Find the full explanation in our media library or click on the button below for the factsheet.

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