– model improvements, fascinating insights and new data

The first half of 2023 spawned many new papers connected to the nextGEMS project, which you can read more about in our last blog post. In the second half, from July to December 2023, the nextGEMS community added another four publications to this list. These publications put forth new knowledge on the climate system and the improvement of climate models and decision-making processes. Members of the project also made available data generated in the third cycle of model development within nextGEMS. 

In one of the papers, Brunner and Sippel investigated how to enhance climate models using statistical and machine learning processes. Their insights are a vital step towards shortening the amount of time needed to evaluate the performance and independence of new climate models.

Climate model genealogy aims at understanding structural dependencies and sampling biases in multi-model ensembles. Dependencies and biases can, for example, occur between different model versions or models developed at the same institution as they partially share computer code, algorithms and parametrization schemes. KumaBender and Jönsson looked into these structural similarities of models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CIMP), identifying 12 different model families. Their findings suggest that using family and ancestry weighting for independent models in multi-model ensembles could improve data on model uncertainty and reduce bias originating from structural similarities between models of the same model family.

Moum et al. worked on understanding the influence of surface wind stress and shear on diurnal deep cycle turbulence at the equatorial cold tongues. Deep cycle turbulence describes the process of mixing the warmer ocean surface water with the colder water of deeper layers. This process plays an important role in climate regulation, effecting the ocean’s capacity to take up heat from the atmosphere.

The work of Baulenas and Bojovic highlights the potential of eliciting information from high-resolution Earth system models in a participatory process to support decision-making in complex matters. Especially tasks like the development of resilient renewable energy systems could benefit from this approach, as shown by the study conducted in Madrid in May 2023.

Finally, Koldunov et al. released a subset of data generated with the ICON and IFS models throughout the third model development cycle.

A comprehensive compilation of publications associated with the project can be found on the nextGEMS Publications page. 

July

August

October

From January to June 2023, the nextGEMS project assembled an extensive arrangement of scientific publications. In total, 12 research papers were published within nextGEMS in the first half of 2023. The studies utilized the Earth System Models (ESMs) that nextGEMS continues to develop, aiming to simulate climate more realistically: the Icosahedral Nonhy-drostatic (also known as ICON) and the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) models.

Although the scientists behind these publications hold different affiliations, they are all part of the nextGEMS consorsium, which is composed of 26 institutions in 15 different countries.

 

 

Furthermore, the topics explored in the studies cover various enriching discussions in Climate Science, as well as groundbreaking advancements in the field. Some of the themes examined in the scientific reviews involve specialized analysis in ensemble forecasting, organized deep convection, the effects of drag to the Hadley cell, and more. Meanwhile, other papers cover broader aspects like the gap between climate science and decision-making processes; the mystery of why the ocean near the Angolan coast stays cooler than the open sea, or an automated method to optimize key parameters in the IFS model.

These are all the scientific publications within the nextGEMS project in the first half of 2023, by month:

January

February

March

April

May

June

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