by Chiel van Heerwaarden, Wageningen University

A first glimpse of variability over land

In preparation for the upcoming Madrid hackathon, the Storms and Land theme met in Wageningen from 6 to 8 April 2023. With multiple positions that have recently started, our goals were to get to know each other better, and to shape up a document that will be a first overview of the ability of the storm-resolving models to capture the climate over land.

Our first focus will be on variability over land in the broadest sense. With the unprecedented global resolution of storm-resolving models we see for the first time mesoscale phenomena, such as cloud systems, mountain winds, sea breezes, or heterogeneity-driven circulations appearing at such a detail level that we can directly compare their statistics directly to field observations. Our hypothesis is that this will largely influence (and hopefully ultimately improve) resolved variability in thermodynamic variables, wind, precipitation, and derived variables such as river runoff or solar power production.

With the expertise and research focus of the different groups, we have an interesting collection of modes of variability that the Storms and Land theme will study in detail in the coming months. The ETH Zurich group is analysing temperature and drought, Wageningen University is studying solar and thermal radiation variability and river runoff, MPI-M and Wageningen together are investigating whether this generation of models is able to pick up soil-moisture precipitation coupling well. Also, the University of Lissabon is evaluating the simulated surface temperatures, while the University of Bern is analysing precipitation in the Alps and the representation of atmospheric blockings in the storm-resolving simulations.

What makes nextGEMS challenging and also exciting for that reason, is that the step from research ideas to actual output in the form of graphs is for most of us far more complex than ever before. This is due to the very large amount of data produced by the storm-resolving models and the different ways of storing those. Postprocessing model data requires advanced engineering skills, for which we are crucially dependent on the (fortunately excellent) support teams from MPI-M and ECMWF.  Nonetheless, after three days of hacking, we were able to bring our first plots to the screen and are warmed up for the Madrid hackathon, where we will hopefully find the first answers to our research questions.

Participants of the Storms & Land Minihackathon.

by Thorsten Mauritsen, MISU

Model performance in the renewable energy sector

By directly and more physically simulating specific events (e.g., tropical cyclones, rainfall extremes, blockings) most associated with hazards, nextGEMS provides an improved basis for assessing risk globally. The importance of simulating fine scales for assessing hazards, but also for other applications, is well understood and motivates the patchwork of downscaling approaches known as the value chain. A Challenge Problem, co-defined with stakeholder groups, hereby, will help guide the development of the SR-ESMs, and their associated workflows, in ways that better expose their information content to application communities. This will allow us to “short-circuit” the value chain and develop a new model of Integrated Assessment. Activities are planned in the form of pilot projects on near surface (wind/solar) renewable energy, marine productivity, and changing weather or climate related hazards.

For the challenge problem in the renewable energy sector, we addressed specific challenges:

Challenge 1: What is the minimal amount of information needed to optimize the design of a regional renewable energy system and how can we extract this information from global storm-resolving models.

Challenge 2: How does the potential renewable energy output landscape change with a changing climate?

During the Cycle 2 Hackathon our stipends were provided with meteogram station data from two different models. Along with temporally sparse snapshots of full three dimensional model output. The main goal was to either find a condensation of the high-frequency output or suggest other output variables, to support the design of renewable energy systems.

Support was given by technical consultants (members of the modelling groups) to help them understand the model output and ways of accessing it since the focus shall lay on the science rather than solving technical problems.

Additionally, the teams were supported by energy consultants, to for instance help them understand design parameters (hub height, diffuse versus direct efficiency, etc.). In particular we had two sessions with Iberdrola and with Vestas Wind Systems. These sessions were particularly useful for the participants to understand the problems that the energy industry is facing, and provided an opportunity to discuss their results with experts. There was also a discussion of how the participants potentially develop a carreer in the renewable energy sector.

Expert interacting with Hackathon participant.

Findings during the Cycle 2 Hackathon

The approach taken in the Hackathon is to use the ability of the nextGEMS models to resolve the mesoscales and represent relevant motion and fields for renewable energy production. We used primarily dedicated high frequency output for a series of stations, but also the complete mapped output.

For example the wind at rotor height of a typical wind power plant around 100 m above ground is used directly to calculate the power output from a typical turbine. Figure 1 shows how the output depends on the wind speed. The output starts at a minimum wind speed and increases with the wind speed to the third power up to a maximum value which is limited by the generator size. At high wind speeds the turbines automatically turn off to limit wear and for safety reasons.

Because the power output curve is highly non-linear in the wind speed, we were interested in seeing how much estimated power is biased if using lower temporal resolution. Figure 2 shows output for four different stations. First we note that estimated output is monotonically decreasing with lower resolution suggesting that all stations, except perhaps the EURECA ocean site, are mostly seeing winds on the qubic wind speed range. For this a different combination of turbine, generator and tower height can be used to extract more energy at these sites. We also see that the bias is very low when degrading from 3 minute to 1 hour means, and even monthly mean wind speeds provide a reasonable estimate. Here it is important to note that this is the average of the instaneous wind speed. If the wind components were average the degradation would be much larger.

Figure 1. Dependency of power output to wind speed.
Figure 2. Power output for four different stations.
Figure 3. Bias of model performance compared to observations. Y-axis shows the deviation from the observation.

Model Performance

We checked how the models perform in terms of representing the observed wind speed at the flat surface Cabauw site in the Netherlands. It turns out that both the IFS and ICON grossly underestimates the occurrence of high wind speeds.

This bias in both the IFS and the standard ICON-Sapphire setup is related to the parameterisation of turbulent drag. This can be seen from the 10 km resolution test simulation conducted using the TTE scheme, which exhibits a more realistic distribution at Cabauw (see figure 3).

Solar Power generation

Figure 4 shows a comparison of the monthly mean modelled downwelling shortwave radiation with observations at the Cabauw site. Here both IFS and ICON do a good job in predicting the observations. Also, the IFS model was analysed in three different resolutions but there is no obvious difference.

To convert the downwelling shortwave radiation to power output one must take into account various losses, here assumed to amount to 12 percent, as well as the temperature degradation, here assumed to be -0.5 %/K (see Figure 5.)

Figure 4. Model performance compared to observations throughout the year for Cabauw, NL.

Figure 5. Left panel shows a map from ICON of the solar energy reaching the surface in kW hours per year. To the right the maximum which can be extracted with such panels. We see that although there is a lot of radiation available in the sub-tropics, e.g. the Sahara, much of this advantage is counteracted by the warm temperatures.

Challenges for the renewable energy industry

What became clear through the Hackathon was that the wind industry is already working with quite advanced modelling tools for site planning and short term forecasting of wind power, along with on site observations. The situation is slightly less advanced for solar power, partly because the modelling tools are not nearly of the same quality due to problems with modelling clouds. New demands on the industry to also assess the impact of the changing climate on production, safety and durability/maintenance needs is a challenge that the industry is not well suited to meet, and where more research is urgently needed. Also, industry is looking forward to leveraging DestinationEarth digital twin simulations in their workflow.


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